AC
AMARIN CORP PLC\UK (AMRN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 net revenue was $62.3M, down 17% year-over-year due to U.S. generic competition and CVS moving VASCEPA from exclusive to not covered; sequentially, revenue increased versus Q3’s $42.3M as RoW and Europe grew .
- GAAP net loss widened to $(48.6)M (EPS $(0.12)) largely due to a one-time non-cash inventory restructuring charge of $36.5M; non-GAAP adjusted net loss was $(8.7)M (EPS $(0.02)) .
- U.S. product revenue fell to $44.2M (vs $64.9M prior year), while Europe rose to $4.0M and RoW to $11.9M, reflecting early launches and partner shipments; gross margin ex-restructuring was 41% .
- Company initiated a 1-for-20 ADS ratio change to maintain Nasdaq listing, a near-term stock reaction catalyst; effective on or about April 11, 2025 .
- Cash and investments remained robust at $294.2M with no debt; management expects CVS impact to weigh on YoY comps through Q1–Q2 2025 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- European momentum: “In all European countries where VAZKEPA has launched, in-market demand grew in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter of 2024,” with national reimbursement secured in Italy and Austria (effective April 1, 2025) .
- RoW launches: Partners launched CV risk reduction in China (EddingPharm) and Australia (CSL Seqirus); RoW net product revenue rose to $11.9M vs $4.2M prior year .
- Cost discipline and liquidity: SG&A declined YoY to $37.0M; cash and investments totaled $294.2M, and management reaffirmed adequate liquidity to support operations .
Quote: “We generated more than $200 million in revenue and ended the year with nearly $300 million in cash and no debt — all measures exemplifying the strength and resilience of our franchise…” — Aaron Berg, CEO .
What Went Wrong
- U.S. pressure: U.S. product revenue fell to $44.2M driven by lower net selling price (generics) and volume impact from CVS Commercial moving from exclusive to not covered; management expects this to impact YoY comps through first two quarters of 2025 .
- Gross margin compression: Excluding the restructuring charge, gross margin declined to 41% vs 58% prior year due to U.S. net price erosion .
- Large non-cash inventory restructuring: $36.5M charge materially impacted GAAP profitability in Q4 .
Analyst concern: “how to think about U.S. net price in the coming quarters?” Answer: mix shift and continued pricing pressure from exclusives and higher Medicare Part D discounts .
Financial Results
Consolidated P&L Snapshot (Oldest → Newest)
YoY context: Q4 revenue down 17% YoY; Q3 down 36%; Q2 down 16%, reflecting U.S. generic pricing and CVS volume headwinds .
Revenue by Geography (Oldest → Newest)
KPIs and Balance Sheet (Oldest → Newest)
Guidance Changes
Note: No formal quantitative guidance ranges (revenue, margin, OpEx, tax) were provided in Q4 materials .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We have a strong foundation financially with 2024 revenues of over $200 million and a cash position of almost $300 million and no debt.” — Aaron Berg, CEO .
- “In all European countries where VAZKEPA has launched, in-market demand grew in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter of 2024… In Italy, the Company secured national reimbursement.” .
- “European product revenue was $4 million… driven primarily by growing contributions from Spain and the U.K… RoW… $11.9 million… partnerships continue to generate meaningful cash contributions with no direct costs incurred.” — Peter Fishman, CFO .
- “We announced our intent to initiate a ratio change to our ADS program… to comply with Nasdaq’s $1.00 minimum bid price… maintain the Company’s listing.” — Peter Fishman, CFO ; details in press release .
- “We have secured more than 50 clinical guidelines… post-hoc analysis showed consistent cardiovascular risk reduction irrespective of baseline LDL-C level.” — Steve Ketchum, R&D .
Q&A Highlights
- U.S. net price drivers: Mix shift following CVS change led to lower rebates mix and variability; continued pricing pressure expected, with Medicare Part D higher discounts .
- BD/pipeline and capital allocation: Opportunistic BD in cardiometabolic areas; focus remains on executing VASCEPA/VAZKEPA; cash to be invested prudently to drive return .
- RoW contributions: Early-stage launches; partners in China and Australia ramping; Canada expanded public access; education and payer access critical to uptake .
- Net pricing trajectory (prior quarters): Additional generics drove higher rebates; expect continued pressure and higher Medicare mix after CVS change .
- China NRDL timing (Q2): Possible inclusion Jan 1, 2025; tiered royalties and no direct costs make economics attractive .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus estimates for EPS, revenue, EBITDA (Q4 2024 and prior quarters/years) were unavailable during this session due to SPGI request limits. As a result, direct “vs consensus” comparisons cannot be provided at this time [GetEstimates error].
- Based on management commentary, analysts should anticipate near-term U.S. estimate pressure (Q1–Q2 2025) due to CVS formulary change and continued pricing pressure, while Europe/RoW trajectories may be revised upward as reimbursement and launches expand .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q4 showed sequential revenue recovery versus Q3 driven by RoW and Europe, but U.S. remains pressured; monitor mix dynamics and Medicare Part D exposure .
- The $36.5M non-cash inventory restructuring depressed GAAP results; non-GAAP loss was modest, highlighting underlying cost discipline and cash resilience .
- Europe is a growing pillar: Italy reimbursement and Austria inclusion (Apr 1, 2025) plus UK/Spain momentum should underpin 2025 revenue expansion; watch pace of regional access wins .
- RoW catalysts: China CVRR launch progressing toward broader reimbursement (NRDL), Australia PBS launch underway; expect variability tied to partner stocking versus end-market demand .
- ADS ratio change is a near-term trading catalyst aimed at maintaining Nasdaq listing; post-effect price mechanics are proportional, with no guarantee of precise 20x move .
- Short term: Expect estimate and price sensitivity to U.S. net price and CVS-related volume impacts through Q1–Q2 2025; watch for additional inventory or supply actions that could affect margins .
- Medium term: Thesis hinges on expanding European reimbursement, accelerating adoption in UK/Spain/Italy, and unlocking RoW demand; robust cash and no debt provide runway for execution .